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November 2008 Archives

November 1, 2008

Tough Being an Optimist

My parents were always involved with politics in my home town in CT. I remember the night Nixon was reelected, but vaguely. I remember very well the election in 1974. Most of the elections since then I figured that the GOP would win out, however optimistically.

In this internet age, it's become a lot easier to pay attention and to make at least educated guesses about the outcomes of elections. You couldn't do that as a "civilian" in the old days. My parents would always have sort of access to polling data. Lot of sad nights on Winthrop Terrace, and elsewhere. McCain ain't no Dole, though, and Palin sure as heck ain't no Kemp.

I've been going around and around in circles this cycle. I believe to the bottom of my feet that the polling has been consistent since February or so. I think the Democrat primaries are way more telling than anyone (on TV) will mention. I'm not beyond believing in subterfuge and chicanery, but I think that there is a very solid 4% - very consistent, conservative (no pun intended) - 4% that represents false positives for Obama.

That with the huge, huge number of declared undecideds, I think bodes well for McCain.

I think the early numbers from the pre-voting are going pretty okay for McCain. I don't believe the numbers being reported in some of these polls. I can't see apocalyptic shifts in voting habits as reported in some of these polls. A 25% change in how this block or that block votes? That hasn't happened in one election cycle since Reconstruction.

Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, NC, McCain. Colorado, likely (that's for you, Mr. Adams) McCain. PA - if not McCain, then it's a real nail biter. I'm on the McCain side. I think Murtha's impact is going to really hurt Dem turnout. And they love Palin.

Obama's been running scared for five weeks. I think the voters are going to smell the fear and indecision, and their liking McCain.

But, it's tough being an optimist. I've given up the number crunching this time, boys. I think McCain's going to do all right, and I don't think the bloodletting in Congress is going to be so bad.

November 2, 2008

DJ Drummond on Polling

Things That Make Polls Go D'Oh (Wizbang)

DJ Drummond has had his finger on the pulse of polling data since before we started Paulie World 6 years ago. This lengthy article reaffirms my faith in the fellows at Wizbang.

Did I mention earlier that RCP has been in the tank for the Dems for quite a while now? Weren't they bought out by CNN? You should go over to their site (www.realclearpolitics.com) and just look at the article titles. Tank city.

November 4, 2008

Dead Heat

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

Continue reading "Dead Heat" »

Mr. Adams' Election Map

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

Continue reading "Mr. Adams' Election Map" »

November 5, 2008

New Contributor Coming on Board

Fellows,

We have a new contributor coming on board at the Commons. Screen name should be John Paul Jones. Capt. Jones has had a lengthy career on a sister site as "The Nervous Rodent." He comes highly recommended my our own Swamp Fox, and I have been reading his stuff for quite a while.

Welcome aboard, Capt. Jones.

Paulie

November 6, 2008

Why Republicans Are Pissing My Off

Author's Note: This piece was originally written shortly before the election. However, it's worth thinking about the frustrations I have with the Republican Party, and assuming others agree, how that may have affected the election. And no, I'm not suggesting the Democratic Party is above the problems I discuss here... I just think the Republican Party is more salvagable. For the record, I voted Bob Barr in 2008, although I live in a solidly Blue state so my vote is nothing more than a protest vote in any case.

I've been voting Republican, at least at the Presidential level, for as long as I've been old enough to put a hanging chad on a ballot. When George W. Bush took office, I was excited. In the days after 9/11, he united and motivated our country, and he immediately ordered decisive action to make our country more safe, while maintaining our international image of power.

But then things fell apart, quickly.

George W. Bush hasn't done a bad job as President. He does, however, have the lowest popularity rating ever -- below that of Nixon during impeachment. Ask any man on the street, and they'll likely tell you he's the worst President we've ever had What gives?

The first problem is we have elevated the position of the President far beyond its original intent. Politicians from both parties are guilty of this. The President leads the country, we are told. The President is to blame when the economy sours (even though it was doing fine until Democrats took control of the House). The President is to blame for lack of Federal health care system (even though the Constitution reserves that power, as it does all non-enumerated powers, to the States). The President leads the Executive Branch, yet all the campaign promises we hear involve legislation the candidates intend to submit if elected.

Ironically, as a president, McCain and Obama would have the exact same power to enact legislation that I have as a citizen -- they can ask a Congressman to introduce it. As Senators, either one could submit legislation directly today. Bush opened himself up to criticism on the economy souring by taking credit for the economy in better times.

But every pundit knows the single biggest factor hurting the Republican Party right now is the war in Iraq. Virtually every American agrees that invading Iraq was a mistake, and blame Bush for "failed intelligence" that justified the war. And here is where we see the Republican Party's greatest liability -- the tendency to lie when the truth would work better.

In late 2002, there was a lot of evidence that Iraq was working on weapons of mass destruction. None of it was hard solid evidence, but nevertheless it was an impressive quantity of evidence. We now know the reason for the evidence. Saddam Hussein operated a military deception program designed to convince the world that he retained WMD while simultaneously not allowing any proof to appear. He gambled this would make America and the UN look like bumbling idiots, increase his influence and power in the region, and prevent any justification for war against him. In retrospect, he failed miserably.

But we didn't invade Iraq because we thought they had weapons of mass destruction. A lot of countries have weapons of mass destruction. A lot of those countries obtained them in violation of treaties and UN resolutions. Israel? India? Pakistan? North Korea? Hello? Anyone care?

We invaded Iraq not because we thought they might be working on chemical weapons, but because we knew Iraq was actively attempting to do the US harm, and we couldn't tolerate it anymore. The WMD excuse was a poorly-executed cover-up, meant to distract the world from the true reasons for the invasion. The problem was the true reasons were better than the cover-up!

Under international law, we obtained causa bella in 1993 we we obtained conclusive proof that the ISS, under direct orders from Saddam Hussein, had attempted to assassinate former President George H. W. Bush during a 1993 visit to Kuwait. President Clinton chose to bomb a few facilities rather than press the issue, but causa bella was extant and it does not go away that easily.

During the rapid withdrawal of US troops after the First Gulf War, Saddam Hussein sent troops into Southern Iraq and Kurdistan to commit genocide against tribal peoples that he believed had supported the US invasion. The UN passed a resolution prohibiting Iraq from doing this, which Saddam Hussein blatantly ignored. In response, the United States, along with the British, French, and a few other allies, agreed to patrol Northern and Southern Iraq to prevent air assets and heavy military equipment from reaching the vulnerable populations.

Iraqi forces violated the declared safe zones on a daily basis, and began routinely firing on US aircraft. Saddam Hussein went as far as to offer huge cash rewards for anyone that killed an American pilot. Again, this is causa bella. The Coalition's muted response was to destroy symbolic air defense assets on a semi-regular basis.

To summarize that lengthy boring history lesson, Iraq attempted to assassinate a former US President, attempted genocide on its own people, and ordered its military to kill American service members by any means possible. Yet instead of using these legal justifications for war, George Bush chose the somewhat sketchy excuse that we had to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction -- then stood by that statement until the bitter end. The result? A loss of international respect for America, and a loss of trust in our government domestically.

You would think the Republican Party would have learned this lesson, but it hasn't. Sarah Palin has made the exact same mistake in Alaska, and its haunting her now. Yes, I'm referring to troopergate. Monegan alleges that he was fired because he refused to fire Palin's sister's ex-husband, Mike Wooten. Sarah Palin has denied this, claiming Monegan was fired for "not being a team player" and other vague problems. But by denying that Wooten was a factor in Monegan's dismissal, she opened herself up to investigations, which are now finding she probably lied about why Monegan was fired.

Can you imagine how differently troopergate would have gone if Sarah Palin had handled this differently? What if she admitted right from the start that Monegan was fired because he refused to fire Mike Wooten? I'm envisioning a Checkers speech on the lawn of the Alaskan Governor's residence. I'm envisioning a speech that looks a little like this:

"Yes, I fired Walt Monegan. I fired him for gross incompetence. My sister brought it to my attention that Mike Wooten, her ex-husband and a state trooper, was a worthless lump of flesh drawing a state paycheck and carrying a badge and gun in my name. He tasered his own stepson for practice, yet Walt Monegan felt he should continue as a state trooper. I don't know if I could legally order Monegan to fire Wooten or not, but I do know this -- nobody who thinks a man that tasers his own stepson for practice should be allowed to enforce the law in our state will ever work for me, as long as I'm Governor of Alaska."

There you go. Draw a line in the snow, and anybody who criticizes you over it now has to publicly admit that they feel troopers should be allowed to taser small children for fun. Who's going to stand up for that creep?

Instead, by denying the obvious truth and using made-up justifications, Sarah Palin made herself vulnerable to attacks on her integrity. And thus the problem all the Republicans seem to have right now... They have so little integrity that they will lie, even when the truth would be better for them. I guess it's just become a force of habit at this point.

About November 2008

This page contains all entries posted to The Commons at Paulie World in November 2008. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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