My parents were always involved with politics in my home town in CT. I remember the night Nixon was reelected, but vaguely. I remember very well the election in 1974. Most of the elections since then I figured that the GOP would win out, however optimistically.
In this internet age, it's become a lot easier to pay attention and to make at least educated guesses about the outcomes of elections. You couldn't do that as a "civilian" in the old days. My parents would always have sort of access to polling data. Lot of sad nights on Winthrop Terrace, and elsewhere. McCain ain't no Dole, though, and Palin sure as heck ain't no Kemp.
I've been going around and around in circles this cycle. I believe to the bottom of my feet that the polling has been consistent since February or so. I think the Democrat primaries are way more telling than anyone (on TV) will mention. I'm not beyond believing in subterfuge and chicanery, but I think that there is a very solid 4% - very consistent, conservative (no pun intended) - 4% that represents false positives for Obama.
That with the huge, huge number of declared undecideds, I think bodes well for McCain.
I think the early numbers from the pre-voting are going pretty okay for McCain. I don't believe the numbers being reported in some of these polls. I can't see apocalyptic shifts in voting habits as reported in some of these polls. A 25% change in how this block or that block votes? That hasn't happened in one election cycle since Reconstruction.
Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, NC, McCain. Colorado, likely (that's for you, Mr. Adams) McCain. PA - if not McCain, then it's a real nail biter. I'm on the McCain side. I think Murtha's impact is going to really hurt Dem turnout. And they love Palin.
Obama's been running scared for five weeks. I think the voters are going to smell the fear and indecision, and their liking McCain.
But, it's tough being an optimist. I've given up the number crunching this time, boys. I think McCain's going to do all right, and I don't think the bloodletting in Congress is going to be so bad.
